Bay Colony flood history
1,191 days with roads at risk since 1996
Record high water
7.89 ft
Sep 18, 2003 · 4 roads at risk
Days a year, then vs now
21 → 60
1996–2005 vs 2016–2025
Most recent
Sep 30, 2026
3.98 ft · 1 road at risk
On the map
The biggest days
Sep 18, 2003: 4 roads at risk7.89 ft at the Sewells Point gauge · 5.2 ft above the tide tables · deepest: Severe · model estimate
Estimates, not records of actual flooding. Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions.
1996–2026
Days with roads at risk, by year
Since 1996
Highest water
| Date | High water · Sewells Point | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.89 ft | +5.18 ft | 4Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road | |
| 7.73 ft | +5.20 ft | 4Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road | |
| 7.55 ft | +4.43 ft | 4Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road | |
| 7.31 ft | +4.35 ft | 3Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road | |
| 6.79 ft | +3.70 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane | |
| 6.63 ft | +3.76 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane | |
| 6.58 ft | +4.35 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane | |
| 6.52 ft | +2.92 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane | |
| 6.50 ft | +3.49 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane | |
| 6.40 ft | +3.72 ft | 2Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
Latest verified
Most recent days
| Date | High water · Sewells Point | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.98 ft | +0.60 ft | 1Possible | South Bay Shore Drive | |
| 4.23 ft | +0.82 ft | 1Possible | South Bay Shore Drive | |
| 4.09 ft | +0.71 ft | 1Possible | South Bay Shore Drive | |
| 5.15 ft | +1.85 ft | 1Likely | South Bay Shore Drive | |
| 5.89 ft | +2.72 ft | 1Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |
Every day, every year
Browse by year
About this data: method, sources and free downloads
Since 1996, NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge has recorded water high enough for FloodRoute's model to put at least one Bay Colony road at risk on 1,191 days, about 39 a year. The highest water was 7.89 ft on Thursday, September 18, 2003, 5.18 ft above the tide tables; at that level the model estimates 4 Bay Colony roads were at risk, including South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane and Lee Road. Those days have become more common: about 21 a year in 1996–2005, versus 60 a year in 2016–2025.
For every day since 1996 we take NOAA's verified highest observed water at the tide gauge, adjust it to the town's prediction station exactly as the live forecast does (the gauge's departure from the tide tables, minus the departure already built into our calibration), and run FloodRoute's flood model on today's road network and street elevations. A day counts when at least one road in the town is at or below that water level by the model's rules. Rain is not included, so wet days were likely worse.
Gauge: NOAA 8638610 (Sewells Point). Heights are feet above MLLW.
Free to use under the Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0. Credit: FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS. Please describe it as estimates, never as observed flooding.
Cite as: FloodRoute (2026). Bay Colony, VA king tide flood history (model estimates). https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history. Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0.
FAQ
Bay Colony flood history: questions, answered
How often do roads flood at high tide in Bay Colony?
By FloodRoute's estimate, at least one Bay Colony road was at risk on 1,191 days between 1996 and Sep 30, 2026, about 39 a year. Those days have become more common: about 21 a year in 1996–2005, versus 60 a year in 2016–2025. Most of those days are shallow water on a few low streets; the biggest days put dozens of roads at risk.
What was the highest tide in Bay Colony since 1996?
Thursday, September 18, 2003: NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge recorded 7.89 ft (MLLW), 5.18 ft above the tide tables. At that level FloodRoute's model estimates 4 Bay Colony roads were at risk, including South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane and Lee Road.
When did a high tide last put Bay Colony roads at risk?
The most recent day in the verified record is Wednesday, September 30, 2026: 3.98 ft at the Sewells Point gauge, 1 road at risk. NOAA verifies data with a lag of a month or two; the live forecast covers today and the weeks ahead.
Is this a record of actual flooding in Bay Colony?
No. Estimates, not records of actual flooding. Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions. Neighbor flood reports in the FloodRoute app are the ground truth we use to check and improve the model.
Can I use this data?
Yes. Download it as CSV or JSON under the Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0, with attribution to FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS. Please describe it as estimates, never as observed flooding. More on the open data page.
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