# Bay Colony, VA king tide and flood history since 1996

> Since 1996, NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge has recorded water high enough for FloodRoute's model to put at least one Bay Colony road at risk on 1,191 days, about 39 a year. The highest water was 7.89 ft on Thursday, September 18, 2003, 5.18 ft above the tide tables; at that level the model estimates 4 Bay Colony roads were at risk, including South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane and Lee Road. Those days have become more common: about 21 a year in 1996–2005, versus 60 a year in 2016–2025.

**Estimates, not records of actual flooding.** Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions.

- Gauge: NOAA 8638610 (Sewells Point), verified data Jan 1, 1996 – Sep 30, 2026
- Live forecast: [Bay Colony flood forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony.md)

## The biggest days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2003 | 7.89 | +5.18 ft | 4 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road |
| Nov 12, 2009 | 7.73 | +5.20 ft | 4 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road |
| Aug 27, 2011 | 7.55 | +4.43 ft | 4 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road |
| Nov 13, 2009 | 7.31 | +4.35 ft | 3 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane, Lee Road |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 6.79 | +3.70 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Nov 22, 2006 | 6.63 | +3.76 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Feb 5, 1998 | 6.58 | +4.35 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Oct 7, 2006 | 6.52 | +2.92 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Oct 4, 2015 | 6.50 | +3.49 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 6.40 | +3.72 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Oct 6, 2006 | 6.32 | +3.09 ft | 2 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane |
| Oct 2, 2015 | 6.18 | +2.80 ft | 1 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |

## Most recent days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | 3.98 | +0.60 ft | 1 | Possible | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4.23 | +0.82 ft | 1 | Possible | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4.09 | +0.71 ft | 1 | Possible | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 5.15 | +1.85 ft | 1 | Likely | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 5.89 | +2.72 ft | 1 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.62 | +2.63 ft | 1 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.98 | +3.05 ft | 1 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.84 | +2.98 ft | 1 | Severe | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4.86 | +2.08 ft | 1 | Likely | South Bay Shore Drive |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 3.95 | +0.76 ft | 1 | Possible | South Bay Shore Drive |

## Days with roads at risk, by year

| Year | Days | Highest water at the gauge (ft) | Most roads at risk | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [1996](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/1996.md) | 17 | 5.05 | 1 | full |
| [1997](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/1997.md) | 25 | 5.54 | 1 | full |
| [1998](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/1998.md) | 30 | 6.58 | 2 | full |
| [1999](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/1999.md) | 23 | 5.97 | 1 | full |
| [2000](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2000.md) | 16 | 5.47 | 1 | full |
| [2001](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2001.md) | 12 | 4.83 | 1 | full |
| [2002](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2002.md) | 12 | 4.70 | 1 | full |
| [2003](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2003.md) | 28 | 7.89 | 4 | full |
| [2004](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2004.md) | 21 | 5.12 | 1 | full |
| [2005](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2005.md) | 27 | 5.00 | 1 | full |
| [2006](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2006.md) | 31 | 6.63 | 2 | full |
| [2007](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2007.md) | 24 | 4.81 | 1 | full |
| [2008](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2008.md) | 20 | 5.86 | 1 | full |
| [2009](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2009.md) | 45 | 7.73 | 4 | full |
| [2010](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2010.md) | 44 | 5.76 | 1 | full |
| [2011](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2011.md) | 37 | 7.55 | 4 | full |
| [2012](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2012.md) | 39 | 6.79 | 2 | full |
| [2013](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2013.md) | 33 | 5.49 | 1 | full |
| [2014](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2014.md) | 47 | 5.02 | 1 | full |
| [2015](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2015.md) | 32 | 6.50 | 2 | full |
| [2016](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2016.md) | 47 | 6.14 | 1 | full |
| [2017](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2017.md) | 50 | 5.22 | 1 | full |
| [2018](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2018.md) | 62 | 5.17 | 1 | full |
| [2019](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2019.md) | 59 | 5.78 | 1 | full |
| [2020](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2020.md) | 60 | 5.44 | 1 | full |
| [2021](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2021.md) | 46 | 5.40 | 1 | full |
| [2022](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2022.md) | 53 | 6.14 | 1 | full |
| [2023](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2023.md) | 64 | 5.71 | 1 | full |
| [2024](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2024.md) | 99 | 5.47 | 1 | full |
| [2025](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2025.md) | 59 | 6.18 | 1 | full |
| [2026](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history/2026.md) | 29 | 5.98 | 1 | partial |

## Method

For every day since 1996 we take NOAA's verified highest observed water at the tide gauge, adjust it to the town's prediction station exactly as the live forecast does (the gauge's departure from the tide tables, minus the departure already built into our calibration), and run FloodRoute's flood model on today's road network and street elevations. A day counts when at least one road in the town is at or below that water level by the model's rules. Rain is not included, so wet days were likely worse.

Data: [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-colony.csv) · [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-colony.json) · Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0 (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/) · Credit: FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS · [All towns](https://floodroute.com/data.md)

## Frequently asked questions

### How often do roads flood at high tide in Bay Colony?

By FloodRoute's estimate, at least one Bay Colony road was at risk on 1,191 days between 1996 and Sep 30, 2026, about 39 a year. Those days have become more common: about 21 a year in 1996–2005, versus 60 a year in 2016–2025. Most of those days are shallow water on a few low streets; the [biggest days](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history) put dozens of roads at risk.

### What was the highest tide in Bay Colony since 1996?

Thursday, September 18, 2003: NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge recorded 7.89 ft (MLLW), 5.18 ft above the tide tables. At that level FloodRoute's model estimates 4 Bay Colony roads were at risk, including South Bay Shore Drive, Wythe Lane and Lee Road.

### When did a high tide last put Bay Colony roads at risk?

The most recent day in the verified record is Wednesday, September 30, 2026: 3.98 ft at the Sewells Point gauge, 1 road at risk. NOAA verifies data with a lag of a month or two; the [live forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony) covers today and the weeks ahead.

### Is this a record of actual flooding in Bay Colony?

No. Estimates, not records of actual flooding. Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions. Neighbor flood reports in the FloodRoute app are the ground truth we use to check and improve the model.

### Can I use this data?

Yes. Download it as [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-colony.csv) or [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-colony.json) under the Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0, with attribution to FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS. Please describe it as estimates, never as observed flooding. More on the [open data page](https://floodroute.com/data).

**Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.** Never drive or walk through flood water: according to the National Weather Service, a foot of moving water can carry away most cars. Turn around, don’t drown. Always follow local authorities and official warnings.

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Web version: https://floodroute.com/va/bay-colony/history · Site index for AI agents: https://floodroute.com/llms.txt · Every page is available as Markdown: add `.md` to its URL.

FloodRoute provides estimates only. Never drive or walk through flood water. © Axiomic, LLC · contact@axiomic.ai