# Linkhorn Estates, VA king tide and flood history since 1996

> Since 1996, NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge has recorded water high enough for FloodRoute's model to put at least one Linkhorn Estates road at risk on 28 days, about 1 a year. The highest water was 7.89 ft on Thursday, September 18, 2003, 5.18 ft above the tide tables; at that level the model estimates 2 Linkhorn Estates roads were at risk, including Quail Point Road and Eden Way. Those days have become more common: about 1 a year in 1996–2005, versus 1 a year in 2016–2025.

**Estimates, not records of actual flooding.** Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions.

- Gauge: NOAA 8638610 (Sewells Point), verified data Jan 1, 1996 – Sep 30, 2026
- Live forecast: [Linkhorn Estates flood forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates.md)

## The biggest days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2003 | 7.89 | +5.18 ft | 2 | Severe | Quail Point Road, Eden Way |
| Nov 12, 2009 | 7.73 | +5.20 ft | 2 | Severe | Quail Point Road, Eden Way |
| Aug 27, 2011 | 7.55 | +4.43 ft | 2 | Severe | Quail Point Road, Eden Way |
| Nov 13, 2009 | 7.31 | +4.35 ft | 2 | Severe | Quail Point Road, Eden Way |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 6.79 | +3.70 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Nov 22, 2006 | 6.63 | +3.76 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Feb 5, 1998 | 6.58 | +4.35 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 7, 2006 | 6.52 | +2.92 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 4, 2015 | 6.50 | +3.49 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 6.40 | +3.72 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 6, 2006 | 6.32 | +3.09 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 2, 2015 | 6.18 | +2.80 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |

## Most recent days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | 5.89 | +2.72 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.98 | +3.05 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.84 | +2.98 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 6.18 | +2.96 ft | 1 | Likely | Quail Point Road |
| Sep 23, 2023 | 5.71 | +3.37 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 6.14 | +3.24 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Sep 6, 2019 | 5.78 | +2.81 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 5.73 | +3.35 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Sep 3, 2016 | 6.14 | +3.14 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |
| Oct 5, 2015 | 5.76 | +3.19 ft | 1 | Possible | Quail Point Road |

## Days with roads at risk, by year

| Year | Days | Highest water at the gauge (ft) | Most roads at risk | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [1996](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/1996.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [1997](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/1997.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [1998](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/1998.md) | 3 | 6.58 | 1 | full |
| [1999](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/1999.md) | 1 | 5.97 | 1 | full |
| [2000](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2000.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2001](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2001.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2002](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2002.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2003](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2003.md) | 1 | 7.89 | 2 | full |
| [2004](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2004.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2005](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2005.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2006](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2006.md) | 3 | 6.63 | 1 | full |
| [2007](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2007.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2008](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2008.md) | 1 | 5.86 | 1 | full |
| [2009](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2009.md) | 3 | 7.73 | 2 | full |
| [2010](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2010.md) | 1 | 5.76 | 1 | full |
| [2011](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2011.md) | 1 | 7.55 | 2 | full |
| [2012](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2012.md) | 2 | 6.79 | 1 | full |
| [2013](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2013.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2014](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2014.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2015](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2015.md) | 3 | 6.50 | 1 | full |
| [2016](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2016.md) | 2 | 6.14 | 1 | full |
| [2017](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2017.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2018](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2018.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2019](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2019.md) | 1 | 5.78 | 1 | full |
| [2020](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2020.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2021](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2021.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2022](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2022.md) | 1 | 6.14 | 1 | full |
| [2023](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2023.md) | 1 | 5.71 | 1 | full |
| [2024](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2024.md) | 0 | — | — | full |
| [2025](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2025.md) | 1 | 6.18 | 1 | full |
| [2026](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history/2026.md) | 3 | 5.98 | 1 | partial |

## Method

For every day since 1996 we take NOAA's verified highest observed water at the tide gauge, adjust it to the town's prediction station exactly as the live forecast does (the gauge's departure from the tide tables, minus the departure already built into our calibration), and run FloodRoute's flood model on today's road network and street elevations. A day counts when at least one road in the town is at or below that water level by the model's rules. Rain is not included, so wet days were likely worse.

Data: [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/linkhorn-estates.csv) · [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/linkhorn-estates.json) · Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0 (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/) · Credit: FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS · [All towns](https://floodroute.com/data.md)

## Frequently asked questions

### How often do roads flood at high tide in Linkhorn Estates?

By FloodRoute's estimate, at least one Linkhorn Estates road was at risk on 28 days between 1996 and Sep 30, 2026, about 1 a year. Those days have become more common: about 1 a year in 1996–2005, versus 1 a year in 2016–2025. Most of those days are shallow water on a few low streets; the [biggest days](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history) put dozens of roads at risk.

### What was the highest tide in Linkhorn Estates since 1996?

Thursday, September 18, 2003: NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge recorded 7.89 ft (MLLW), 5.18 ft above the tide tables. At that level FloodRoute's model estimates 2 Linkhorn Estates roads were at risk, including Quail Point Road and Eden Way.

### When did a high tide last put Linkhorn Estates roads at risk?

The most recent day in the verified record is Saturday, September 26, 2026: 5.89 ft at the Sewells Point gauge, 1 road at risk. NOAA verifies data with a lag of a month or two; the [live forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates) covers today and the weeks ahead.

### Is this a record of actual flooding in Linkhorn Estates?

No. Estimates, not records of actual flooding. Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions. Neighbor flood reports in the FloodRoute app are the ground truth we use to check and improve the model.

### Can I use this data?

Yes. Download it as [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/linkhorn-estates.csv) or [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/linkhorn-estates.json) under the Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0, with attribution to FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS. Please describe it as estimates, never as observed flooding. More on the [open data page](https://floodroute.com/data).

**Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.** Never drive or walk through flood water: according to the National Weather Service, a foot of moving water can carry away most cars. Turn around, don’t drown. Always follow local authorities and official warnings.

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Web version: https://floodroute.com/va/linkhorn-estates/history · Site index for AI agents: https://floodroute.com/llms.txt · Every page is available as Markdown: add `.md` to its URL.

FloodRoute provides estimates only. Never drive or walk through flood water. © Axiomic, LLC · contact@axiomic.ai