# Bay Island, VA king tide and flood history since 1996

> Since 1996, NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge has recorded water high enough for FloodRoute's model to put at least one Bay Island road at risk on 744 days, about 24 a year. The highest water was 7.89 ft on Thursday, September 18, 2003, 5.18 ft above the tide tables; at that level the model estimates 28 Bay Island roads were at risk, including Wake Forest Street, Moss Road and English Cedar Circle. Those days have become more common: about 13 a year in 1996–2005, versus 38 a year in 2016–2025.

**Estimates, not records of actual flooding.** Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions.

- Gauge: NOAA 8638610 (Sewells Point), verified data Jan 1, 1996 – Sep 30, 2026
- Live forecast: [Bay Island flood forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island.md)

## The biggest days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2003 | 7.89 | +5.18 ft | 28 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Nov 12, 2009 | 7.73 | +5.20 ft | 25 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Aug 27, 2011 | 7.55 | +4.43 ft | 24 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Nov 13, 2009 | 7.31 | +4.35 ft | 20 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 6.79 | +3.70 ft | 13 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Nov 22, 2006 | 6.63 | +3.76 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Feb 5, 1998 | 6.58 | +4.35 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 7, 2006 | 6.52 | +2.92 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 4, 2015 | 6.50 | +3.49 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 28, 2012 | 6.40 | +3.72 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 6, 2006 | 6.32 | +3.09 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Oct 2, 2015 | 6.18 | +2.80 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |

## Most recent days

| Date | High water (Sewells Point gauge, ft MLLW) | vs tide tables | Roads at risk | Severity | Deepest streets (model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4.23 | +0.82 ft | 2 | Possible | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4.09 | +0.71 ft | 1 | Possible | Wake Forest Street |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 5.15 | +1.85 ft | 4 | Likely | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 5.89 | +2.72 ft | 9 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.62 | +2.63 ft | 8 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.98 | +3.05 ft | 12 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.84 | +2.98 ft | 9 | Severe | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road, English Cedar Circle |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4.86 | +2.08 ft | 2 | Likely | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4.06 | +0.90 ft | 1 | Possible | Wake Forest Street |
| Jul 12, 2026 | 4.19 | +1.08 ft | 2 | Possible | Wake Forest Street, Moss Road |

## Days with roads at risk, by year

| Year | Days | Highest water at the gauge (ft) | Most roads at risk | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [1996](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/1996.md) | 9 | 5.05 | 3 | full |
| [1997](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/1997.md) | 20 | 5.54 | 8 | full |
| [1998](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/1998.md) | 18 | 6.58 | 12 | full |
| [1999](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/1999.md) | 14 | 5.97 | 12 | full |
| [2000](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2000.md) | 12 | 5.47 | 8 | full |
| [2001](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2001.md) | 6 | 4.83 | 2 | full |
| [2002](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2002.md) | 2 | 4.70 | 2 | full |
| [2003](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2003.md) | 20 | 7.89 | 28 | full |
| [2004](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2004.md) | 14 | 5.12 | 4 | full |
| [2005](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2005.md) | 14 | 5.00 | 3 | full |
| [2006](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2006.md) | 16 | 6.63 | 12 | full |
| [2007](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2007.md) | 14 | 4.81 | 2 | full |
| [2008](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2008.md) | 16 | 5.86 | 9 | full |
| [2009](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2009.md) | 30 | 7.73 | 25 | full |
| [2010](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2010.md) | 29 | 5.76 | 8 | full |
| [2011](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2011.md) | 19 | 7.55 | 24 | full |
| [2012](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2012.md) | 22 | 6.79 | 13 | full |
| [2013](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2013.md) | 21 | 5.49 | 8 | full |
| [2014](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2014.md) | 26 | 5.02 | 3 | full |
| [2015](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2015.md) | 25 | 6.50 | 12 | full |
| [2016](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2016.md) | 28 | 6.14 | 12 | full |
| [2017](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2017.md) | 38 | 5.22 | 6 | full |
| [2018](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2018.md) | 41 | 5.17 | 6 | full |
| [2019](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2019.md) | 33 | 5.78 | 9 | full |
| [2020](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2020.md) | 35 | 5.44 | 8 | full |
| [2021](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2021.md) | 28 | 5.40 | 8 | full |
| [2022](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2022.md) | 34 | 6.14 | 12 | full |
| [2023](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2023.md) | 41 | 5.71 | 8 | full |
| [2024](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2024.md) | 60 | 5.47 | 8 | full |
| [2025](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2025.md) | 41 | 6.18 | 12 | full |
| [2026](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history/2026.md) | 18 | 5.98 | 12 | partial |

## Method

For every day since 1996 we take NOAA's verified highest observed water at the tide gauge, adjust it to the town's prediction station exactly as the live forecast does (the gauge's departure from the tide tables, minus the departure already built into our calibration), and run FloodRoute's flood model on today's road network and street elevations. A day counts when at least one road in the town is at or below that water level by the model's rules. Rain is not included, so wet days were likely worse.

Data: [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-island.csv) · [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-island.json) · Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0 (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/) · Credit: FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS · [All towns](https://floodroute.com/data.md)

## Frequently asked questions

### How often do roads flood at high tide in Bay Island?

By FloodRoute's estimate, at least one Bay Island road was at risk on 744 days between 1996 and Sep 30, 2026, about 24 a year. Those days have become more common: about 13 a year in 1996–2005, versus 38 a year in 2016–2025. Most of those days are shallow water on a few low streets; the [biggest days](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history) put dozens of roads at risk.

### What was the highest tide in Bay Island since 1996?

Thursday, September 18, 2003: NOAA's Sewells Point tide gauge recorded 7.89 ft (MLLW), 5.18 ft above the tide tables. At that level FloodRoute's model estimates 28 Bay Island roads were at risk, including Wake Forest Street, Moss Road and English Cedar Circle.

### When did a high tide last put Bay Island roads at risk?

The most recent day in the verified record is Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 4.23 ft at the Sewells Point gauge, 2 roads at risk. NOAA verifies data with a lag of a month or two; the [live forecast](https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island) covers today and the weeks ahead.

### Is this a record of actual flooding in Bay Island?

No. Estimates, not records of actual flooding. Each day is NOAA's verified high water at the tide gauge, run through FloodRoute's flood model on today's roads and elevations, in dry weather. Drains, levees, tide gates, rain, road changes and elevation error all mean real conditions differed. Not for property, real-estate, insurance, lending, engineering or legal decisions. Neighbor flood reports in the FloodRoute app are the ground truth we use to check and improve the model.

### Can I use this data?

Yes. Download it as [CSV](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-island.csv) or [JSON](https://floodroute.com/data/history/va/bay-island.json) under the Open Database License (ODbL) 1.0, with attribution to FloodRoute (floodroute.com), © OpenStreetMap contributors, NOAA CO-OPS. Please describe it as estimates, never as observed flooding. More on the [open data page](https://floodroute.com/data).

**Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.** Never drive or walk through flood water: according to the National Weather Service, a foot of moving water can carry away most cars. Turn around, don’t drown. Always follow local authorities and official warnings.

---

Web version: https://floodroute.com/va/bay-island/history · Site index for AI agents: https://floodroute.com/llms.txt · Every page is available as Markdown: add `.md` to its URL.

FloodRoute provides estimates only. Never drive or walk through flood water. © Axiomic, LLC · contact@axiomic.ai